The other day a friend proclaimed that the laptop is the new desktop, and the smartphone is the new laptop.
Laptops, once the defining symbol of mobile computing, are now pretty much just a "computer" in most peoples' eyes. In the geek communities there's some buzz around ultra-mobile machines, but to me they're a solution to portable computing like the Segway is a solution to walking. It's too big for your pocket, and if you're going to carry around a bag anyway, there are plenty of lightweight options that don't require tiny screens, cramped keyboards, and compromises in performance and connectivity.
So what will happen when we all carry around mobile-broadband connected, high powered devices in our pocket? Media folks love to speculate on the advertising opportunities available to brands in the mobile space, but that doesn't feel like a totally viable option. Studies have shown American consumers view the phone as a very personal device, and any type of ad intrusion is unlikely to be welcomed with open arms. Nielsen reports that only 9% of people agree with the statement that advertising on their cellphones is acceptable, while 31% say it's acceptable if it lowers the bill (source).
I think the real game changer will be in how people interact with each other and in the ways they share and access information. And for brands, that means that 'being part of the conversation' will take on a whole new level of importance.
I can see a world where people are connected via social networks, but not via a web interface in their browser, but via apps that are seamlessly integrated into their phones. Social networking will evolve to be more, well, social. People will be able to instantly friend each other simply by pushing a button on their devices, or perhaps by simply touching their phones together, almost like a digital handshake. No need to take down names, search for them on Facebook the next day, and click 'add'. It will be much more human.
And with that seamless integration of social networks into real life, the opinions our contacts have of various products, services, etc. will be with us 24/7. If your brand has a bad rep, expect everyone to know about it.
I can also see a world where customers shopping at their local brick & mortar can instantly access reviews and price comparisons, and even make the purchases via their phones. This will create a whole new level of competition in terms of price and product quality which could have dramatic effects on consumer habits. Participating and managing this conversation will take on a whole new level of importance, and social media, blogosphere outreach, and word of mouth / grassroots will be leading the way.
All of this is already happening to some degree, but as mobile platforms open up and UI's evolve, it will not require cumbersome T9 typing into mobile web browsers to accomplish. It will be as second nature as simply making a call.
My phone and I look forward to meeting you in the future.
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